In this four-minute video, Paul Punzo, VP Portfolio Strategy & CIO, IPC Private Wealth, discusses market resilience, shifting risks, and opportunities shaping the year ahead.
Paul notes that despite significant headwinds in 2025—including the April tariff shock, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and rising global fragmentation—markets posted strong results.
Canada led global performance with a 31.7% gain, followed by the EAFE index at 25.7% and the U.S. market at 17.9% in CAD terms. Bonds were positive, with the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index up 2.6%. Equity valuations in the U.S. remain elevated, especially among mega cap technology names, but are not uniformly excessive, supported by a broadening rally as nearly 60% of S&P 500 companies now trade above their 200 day moving averages.
In Canada, the Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.25% amid volatile GDP data, tariff uncertainty, and inflation sitting near target. The TSX rose 6.25% over the quarter, supported by strong precious metals, commodity momentum, and recovering oil and gas prices. Financials outperformed on the back of rate cuts earlier in the year. Economic data remained uneven, pressured by manufacturing softness, labour disruptions, and uncertainty around U.S. trade policy.
In the U.S., markets responded to shifting tariff expectations, solid corporate earnings, an AI driven tech rally, and three Fed rate cuts, even as inflation held between 2.7% and 2.9%. Europe saw improving momentum supported by fiscal policy and structural reforms.
Across our portfolios, increased growth and multifactor exposures aligned well with broad based equity strength while maintaining diversified risk through fixed income.
Looking ahead, we expect moderate global growth and easing inflation volatility. We continue to favour U.S. exposure, emphasize diversification across asset classes, and prioritize quality and liquidity within fixed income given ongoing geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
Watch our video to learn more.
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