It’s no secret that Canadians are increasingly relying on their own resources to fund their retirement. Here are ten strategies to help your RRSP grow and increase your retirement capital.
The market is still being paid to believe in AI earnings growth. It is also starting to be charged for inflation risk again. That is a harder combination than it looks. The AI earnings cycle remains powerful. U.S. equity markets have not been rising on enthusiasm alone. Earnings growth, particularly among the largest technology and AI related companies, has done much of the heavy lifting. But inflation risk is rebuilding at the same time. Labour markets are proving more resilient than expected, energy prices are still working through the data, and central banks may not have as much room to look through this shock as investors assumed even a few weeks ago. This is the market’s central problem. AI supports the growth story. Higher real yields challenge the valuation story. Those two forces can coexist for a while. They may not coexist comfortably if inflation keeps moving higher and central banks have to respond. The issue is no longer whether AI is real. The issue is whether the earnings path is strong enough to absorb a higher discount rate.
The stock market has absorbed a lot. Oil prices are higher. Inflation has reaccelerated. Bond yields have moved up. Geopolitical risk is no longer theoretical. Yet equity markets, particularly in the U.S., remain close to record highs. That does not mean markets are ignoring risk. It means investors are still willing to look through it because the dominant story remains earnings, and more specifically, AI-related earnings. The question is not whether risks exist. They do. The question is what could become large enough to interrupt the earnings narrative that has carried this market higher. In my view, there are three main candidates. Inflation that forces central banks back into a tightening cycle. Energy disruption that lasts long enough to damage growth and margins. A break in confidence around the AI earnings story. There is also a fourth, less obvious risk: the market may soon be asked to absorb a wave of large AI-related equity issuance at the same time that investors are already heavily exposed to the theme. None of these risks is enough, on its own, to say the rally must end now. But together they define the transmission path we should be watching.
Understanding listed private equity and its role in modern portfolios
The market is still being paid to believe in AI earnings growth. It is also starting to be charged for inflation risk again. That is a harder combination than it looks. The AI earnings cycle remains powerful. U.S. equity markets have not been rising on enthusiasm alone. Earnings growth, particularly among the largest technology and AI related companies, has done much of the heavy lifting. But inflation risk is rebuilding at the same time. Labour markets are proving more resilient than expected, energy prices are still working through the data, and central banks may not have as much room to look through this shock as investors assumed even a few weeks ago. This is the market’s central problem. AI supports the growth story. Higher real yields challenge the valuation story. Those two forces can coexist for a while. They may not coexist comfortably if inflation keeps moving higher and central banks have to respond. The issue is no longer whether AI is real. The issue is whether the earnings path is strong enough to absorb a higher discount rate.
The stock market has absorbed a lot. Oil prices are higher. Inflation has reaccelerated. Bond yields have moved up. Geopolitical risk is no longer theoretical. Yet equity markets, particularly in the U.S., remain close to record highs. That does not mean markets are ignoring risk. It means investors are still willing to look through it because the dominant story remains earnings, and more specifically, AI-related earnings. The question is not whether risks exist. They do. The question is what could become large enough to interrupt the earnings narrative that has carried this market higher. In my view, there are three main candidates. Inflation that forces central banks back into a tightening cycle. Energy disruption that lasts long enough to damage growth and margins. A break in confidence around the AI earnings story. There is also a fourth, less obvious risk: the market may soon be asked to absorb a wave of large AI-related equity issuance at the same time that investors are already heavily exposed to the theme. None of these risks is enough, on its own, to say the rally must end now. But together they define the transmission path we should be watching.
The market is still treating the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a disruption that can be absorbed. That may prove correct, but the window for that outcome is narrowing. The issue is no longer just the conflict itself. The fighting has eased, but the Strait remains effectively closed. Energy markets can absorb short disruptions through inventories, rerouted supply and strategic reserve releases. They cannot absorb an indefinite loss of one of the world’s most important energy transit routes without forcing a sharper adjustment in prices, demand or both. For now, oil prices remain high, but not disorderly. Brent has been trading around $110 per barrel, which points to a tighter market, not a market in full crisis. That is the uncomfortable part. Prices are still close enough to baseline assumptions that investors can look through the disruption. Inventory data suggest that may be too comfortable. Commercial oil inventories are being drawn down. The buffers that helped the market absorb the first phase of the shock are not permanent. A higher volume of oil already at sea helped cushion the initial supply loss. Strategic reserve releases have also offset part of the shock. China has helped as well, with crude imports falling as refiners reduced runs and stockpiling slowed. But these are bridges, not foundations. If inventories are still falling, demand is still exceeding available supply.
The inflation debate has shifted, but households have not moved on. Central banks, economists and markets tend to talk about inflation as a rate of change. On that basis, the worst of the post-pandemic inflation shock has faded. The more important issue now is not whether prices are still rising at the same pace, but that they are rising from a much higher base. For households, that distinction matters. Inflation can slow, while the cost-of-living shock remains. Canada has not avoided the inflation shock. It has absorbed it differently. Consumer prices are now roughly 23% above their 2019 average(1). That is a significant increase, even if it is somewhat less severe than the cumulative price gains seen in the U.S., the U.K. and Europe. The inflation shock may have cooled, but the cost-of-living shock has not disappeared. At the same time, the Canadian story is not only about higher prices. Wages and income have provided more of an offset than the household mood might suggest. Real household disposable income per capita is roughly 5% above its Q4 2019 level (2). That does not mean households feel comfortable. It means Canada’s inflation experience has been shaped by both sides of the ledger: prices have risen sharply, but incomes have not been standing still. The issue is that averages hide a lot. Higher-income households with assets, wage growth or exposure to energy and financial markets have been better positioned to absorb the shock. Lower and middle-income households, renters and those more exposed to food, shelter and transportation costs have felt the squeeze more directly. The inflation rate may have normalized, but the lived experience remains uneven. There is also an important distinction between categories. Fuel prices can move down as quickly as they move up. Most other prices do not. A decline in gasoline prices may provide some relief, but it does not reverse the broader cost-of-living shock embedded across shelter, services, food and other household expenses.
In this edition of Market Monitor , Leonie MacCann, Head of Client Investment Solutions at Keyridge Asset Management , Jeff Bradacs, Co-Head of Equity Strategies and Head of Portfolio Management & Training at PICTON Investments , and Claire Thornhill, Partner at EdgePoint Wealth Management , share their perspectives on today’s markets and how they are positioning portfolios for clients. Leonie MacCann begins by acknowledging heightened market volatility, driven largely by geopolitical tensions such as the U.S.–Iran conflict. While short-term uncertainty is dominating headlines, she emphasizes the importance of looking beyond the noise. From a medium- to long-term perspective, she sees resilient—though fragmented—global growth supported by broad-based fiscal stimulus in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. Strong corporate earnings, healthy consumer balance sheets, and growing adoption of artificial intelligence are also expected to support productivity and markets over time. Jeff Bradacs highlights two long-duration themes especially relevant to Canadian investors: artificial intelligence and commodities. Massive global spending on AI infrastructure, particularly data centres, is creating demand across the power, utilities, and energy supply chains—areas where Canadian companies can benefit. He also points to select commodity cycles being driven by supply shortages after years of underinvestment, creating potential opportunities despite ongoing volatility. Claire Thornhill explains why her team welcomes volatility. Market pullbacks create opportunities to buy high-quality, resilient businesses at more attractive valuations. At EdgePoint, the focus remains on companies undergoing positive change that the market may be temporarily overlooking. Together, the speakers reinforce a disciplined, long-term investment approach focused on diversification, fundamental value, and navigating uncertainty with confidence. View our video to learn more:
Last week, we argued that the risk rally was running on borrowed time. That still looks right. What has changed is the source of the pressure. Equity investors have largely looked through the conflict in the Middle East. The market has been resilient, supported by renewed enthusiasm around AI and a belief that the economic damage from higher energy prices will remain manageable. Bond markets are sending a different signal. Long term yields have moved back toward their highest levels since the war began, even as equities have held up. That divergence matters. Equities are still behaving as though the shock will prove temporary. Bonds are increasingly pricing the risk that it will not. The rally has not broken. But the cost of sustaining it has gone up.
The market is still being paid to believe in AI earnings growth. It is also starting to be charged for inflation risk again. That is a harder combination than it looks. The AI earnings cycle remains powerful. U.S. equity markets have not been rising on enthusiasm alone. Earnings growth, particularly among the largest technology and AI related companies, has done much of the heavy lifting. But inflation risk is rebuilding at the same time. Labour markets are proving more resilient than expected, energy prices are still working through the data, and central banks may not have as much room to look through this shock as investors assumed even a few weeks ago. This is the market’s central problem. AI supports the growth story. Higher real yields challenge the valuation story. Those two forces can coexist for a while. They may not coexist comfortably if inflation keeps moving higher and central banks have to respond. The issue is no longer whether AI is real. The issue is whether the earnings path is strong enough to absorb a higher discount rate.
The stock market has absorbed a lot. Oil prices are higher. Inflation has reaccelerated. Bond yields have moved up. Geopolitical risk is no longer theoretical. Yet equity markets, particularly in the U.S., remain close to record highs. That does not mean markets are ignoring risk. It means investors are still willing to look through it because the dominant story remains earnings, and more specifically, AI-related earnings. The question is not whether risks exist. They do. The question is what could become large enough to interrupt the earnings narrative that has carried this market higher. In my view, there are three main candidates. Inflation that forces central banks back into a tightening cycle. Energy disruption that lasts long enough to damage growth and margins. A break in confidence around the AI earnings story. There is also a fourth, less obvious risk: the market may soon be asked to absorb a wave of large AI-related equity issuance at the same time that investors are already heavily exposed to the theme. None of these risks is enough, on its own, to say the rally must end now. But together they define the transmission path we should be watching.
Understanding listed private equity and its role in modern portfolios
When it comes to planning your estate, there are some decisions you’ll want to consider well in advance. This blog will help prime you for one of the most important decisions you can make when you’re planning an estate: how to choose an executor.
Estate planning is a formalized plan which specifies details regarding the management and transfer of your estate in the event of your incapacitation or death.
Many parents are concerned with the issue of “affluenza.” The concern is that a child who receives great wealth with ease may also inherit a lack of drive and wander through life with a sense of entitlement.
