In the following 5-minute video, Paul Punzo, Vice‑President of Portfolio Strategy and Chief Investment Officer at IPC Private Wealth, outlines a volatile first quarter of 2026 shaped by shifting fundamentals and heightened geopolitical risk. The quarter began on relatively solid footing, with improving market breadth, continued U.S. economic strength, and AI‑driven capital spending supporting growth. Early optimism was reinforced by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs that helped reduce policy uncertainty.
That backdrop changed abruptly following the outbreak of the U.S.–Iran conflict on February 28. The conflict triggered sharp increases in oil prices, renewed inflation concerns, and rising risks to global growth, driving market volatility. Oil surged from roughly $60 to over $100 per barrel by quarter‑end, becoming the dominant macro driver.
Equity market performance reflected these pressures. The S&P 500 declined, led by weakness in technology, consumer discretionary, and financials, while Canadian equities faced challenges amid slower growth and heightened trade and inflation risks. In contrast, energy and utilities outperformed, benefiting from elevated commodity prices. International markets, particularly Europe and Asia, became more uncertain due to their reliance on imported energy.
Fixed income markets also experienced volatility, with higher yields and flatter yield curves as investors demanded greater compensation for inflation risk. Despite this, bonds remain an important portfolio diversifier, with expectations for returns modestly above cash over time.
Against this backdrop, Paul emphasizes a portfolio strategy focused on resilience rather than reaction. This includes maintaining diversified equity exposure, emphasizing high‑quality fixed income, and incorporating alternative strategies to help portfolios absorb shocks during periods of elevated uncertainty.
This material is intended for use by accredited IPC Securities Corporation Advisors who offer IPC Private Wealth accounts. Neither this report nor the mention of individual investments within it is intended as a solicitation to purchase securities. The content of this report is for IPC Investment Corporation (IPCIC) Advisor reference only.
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IPC Private Wealth is a division of IPC Securities Corporation. IPC Securities Corporation is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.
